Tourism in the Shadow of Climate Change – Insights from a Recently Published Study

Monday, 18 August 2025 22:02

A few days ago, the study titled Tourist demand and destination development under climate change: complexities and perspectives was published, examining the relationship between tourism and climate change. The authors use literature reviews and case studies to demonstrate how demand and supply are transforming and which destinations are most at risk.

Extreme weather events – heatwaves, wildfires, floods, or even a lack of snow – are directly reshaping travel habits. According to a study by Stefan Gössling and Daniel Scott , tourists are becoming increasingly flexible in choosing destinations, seasons are shifting, and locations offering safer and more stable climatic conditions are gaining value.

The study uses examples of specific destinations to illustrate how climate change is making various tourist hotspots vulnerable – from coastal resorts and mountain ski centres to major cities – while also serving as a warning that similar challenges could affect other destinations.

Sinking islands and flooded cities

Could the Maldives disappear?
The Maldives lie at sea level, and the water level is rising by an average of 3.2 mm per year. This could lead to parts of the islands disappearing in the future – despite tourism accounting for 30% of the country’s GDP.

Can Venice survive the floods?
The city of lagoons now faces extraordinary flooding on an average of 60 days per year. The flooding of its famous squares and streets not only disrupts the lives of locals but also threatens tourism.

Will the Caribbean remain safe?
The Bahamas and Jamaica are increasingly hit by powerful hurricanes, which often destroy hotels and tourism infrastructure. Insurance premiums have risen by 20–30%, discouraging many investors.

Ski resorts without snow

Can you ski in the Alps without snow?
The glaciers in Chamonix have shrunk by a quarter over 30 years, and by 2050, it’s almost certain that slopes below 1,600 metres in Zermatt will be snow-free. The solution: more locations are shifting towards summer hiking and cycling tourism.

Will Aspen lose its winter season?
In the American ski resort, the winter season is already 30 days shorter than it was in the 1980s. This results in tens of millions of dollars in lost revenue annually, and the local economy is struggling to adapt.

Scorching summers in cities

Is it worth visiting Rome or Barcelona in summer?
In Mediterranean cities, heatwaves push temperatures above 40°C. In Barcelona, this has led to 10–15% fewer tourists during the summer peak season. In Rome, the situation is worsened by water shortages: tourists increase the city’s water consumption by 20% during the hottest months.

Could Copenhagen be the city of the future?
The Danish capital is a positive example: it aims to be carbon neutral by 2025. With its cycling infrastructure, green urban planning, and sustainable tourism strategies, it has become a favourite destination for climate-conscious travellers.

The interaction of supply and demand

Case studies show that where energy and water consumption are measurably reduced, and local communities are involved, tourists are more willing to spend and return. Sustainability is no longer just a moral imperative but also a market advantage.

A new approach is needed

The research emphasises that destination development must address environmental, economic, and social dimensions simultaneously. The future of tourism depends on flexibility, innovation, and collaboration with local communities.

The study clearly shows: examples like Venice, the Maldives, Chamonix, Aspen, or Barcelona demonstrate that climate change is not a distant threat but an everyday reality for tourism. The destinations that remain competitive will be those that recognise the changes in time and develop long-term sustainable strategies.

Gössling, S., & Scott, D. (2025). Tourist demand and destination development under climate change: complexities and perspectives. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2025.2543953. LINK