Tourism in the shadow of climate change – insights from a newly published study

Monday, 18 August 2025 22:02

A few days ago, the study titled Tourist demand and destination development under climate change: complexities and perspectives was published, examining the relationship between tourism and climate change. The authors use literature reviews and case studies to demonstrate how demand and supply are transforming and which destinations are most at risk.

Extreme weather events – heatwaves, wildfires, floods, or even lack of snow – are directly reshaping travel habits. According to the Stefan Gössling and Daniel Scott study, tourists are becoming increasingly flexible in choosing destinations, seasons are shifting, and places offering safer and more stable climatic conditions are gaining value.

The study uses examples of specific destinations to illustrate how climate change makes various tourist locations vulnerable – from coastal resorts and mountain ski centres to major cities – and serves as a warning that similar challenges could affect other destinations too.

Sinking islands and flooded cities

Could the Maldives disappear?
The Maldives lie at sea level, and the water level is rising by an average of 3.2 mm per year. In the future, this could lead to parts of the islands disappearing – despite tourism contributing 30% of the GDP here.

Will Venice survive the floods?
The city of lagoons now suffers from extreme flooding an average of 60 days a year. The flooding of its famous squares and streets not only disrupts local life but also poses a threat to tourism.

Will the Caribbean remain safe?
Stronger hurricanes are increasingly devastating the Bahamas and Jamaica, often destroying hotels and tourism infrastructure. Insurance premiums have risen by 20–30%, deterring many investors.

Ski resorts without snow

Can skiing in the Alps survive without snow?
The glaciers in Chamonix have shrunk by a quarter in 30 years, and by 2050, it’s almost certain that slopes below 1,600 metres in Zermatt will be snowless. The solution: more locations are shifting towards summer hiking and cycling tourism.

Is Aspen losing its winter season?
In the American ski resort, the winter season is already 30 days shorter than it was in the 1980s. This results in tens of millions of dollars in lost revenue annually, and the local economy is struggling to adapt.

Hot summers in cities

Is it worth visiting Rome or Barcelona in summer?
In Mediterranean cities, heatwaves push temperatures above 40°C. In Barcelona, this has led to a 10–15% drop in tourist numbers during the summer peak season. In Rome, the situation is worsened by water shortages: tourists increase the city’s water consumption by 20% during the hottest months.

Could Copenhagen be the city of the future?
The Danish capital is a positive example: it aims to be carbon neutral by 2025. With its cycling infrastructure, green urban planning, and sustainable tourism strategies, it has become a favourite destination for climate-conscious travellers.

The interplay of demand and supply

Case studies show that where energy and water consumption are measurably reduced, and local communities are involved, tourists are more willing to spend and return. Sustainability is no longer just a moral imperative but also a market advantage.

A new approach is needed

The research emphasises that destination development must address environmental, economic, and social dimensions simultaneously. The future of tourism depends on flexibility, innovation, and collaboration with local communities.

The study clearly shows that examples like Venice, the Maldives, Chamonix, Aspen, or Barcelona prove that climate change is not a distant threat but a daily reality for tourism. The destinations that will remain competitive are those that recognise the changes in time and build long-term sustainable strategies.

Gössling, S., & Scott, D. (2025). Tourist demand and destination development under climate change: complexities and perspectives. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1080/09669582.2025.2543953. LINK